How COVID-19 will Affect 2021 General Elections

By Henry Mulindwa

Information gathered indicates that within the sitting regime is a lingering question as to whether the 2021 general elections should be pushed or be maintained as scheduled.

Many voices have alluded to the fact that due to the current economic meltdown arising from the COVID-19 pandemic, the polls would be pushed for more two years.  

However, this is still a dream. Whereas many in the system especially sitting legislators and ministers are yearning for this extension up to 2023, there is more than what meets the eye if this is to be attained.

To begin with, sources revealed that the current lockdown is not dictated by us. It is rather a situation that is remotely being dictated by the UK government though this comes as advice.

For example, sources suggested that when the 14days lockdown expired, the government was of the view that it gets lifted after it had convinced itself that the patients and their contacts had all been identified and therefore contained.

Therefore, there was no more internal infections feared. The only risk remained from imported patients.

As such, sources said UK sent two experts here and discussed with government wherein that meeting, the experts reportedly advised against lifting the lockdown.

This is how the president slapped another 21-days lockdown with even stricter measures.

The lockdown is ending next week and as feared earlier; already all new cases are imported ones courtesy of truck drivers from abroad.

We have learnt that though government has done well in handling internal spread of this disease, some of the measures are being considered for retention until up to December.

Most important of these measures include that of curfew and also that of social distancing.

The reason for retaining these two are two fold. One is that, the exact timeframe when COVID-19 medicine would be available is still a nightmare to all governments.

This therefore means only practical measures like this can help reduce it’s spread.

Secondly, the threats posed by now weakened Public Order Management Act creates a big gap in enforcing security measures on controlling political rallies and yet, this is the most critical time when security is needed as we head towards election period.

By retaining the curfew measure, it means all aspirants will not have time to move beyond stipulated hours.

This will most likely affect those who would want to meet their campaign agents at night or even make night door to door mobilization of voters as has always been the case with some candidates. Some even use such hours to deliver electoral bribes like soap, salt, cash etc.

As for social distancing measure, it is reported that candidates would have to minimize on the number of voters attending their rallies and this shall be enforced by security and LC1s. It is even being suggested that candidates would be asked to liase with District COVID-19 Taskforce to ensure that safety measures are in place at all campaign venues. This means things like sanitazers, soap etc shall be part of the conditions to be fulfilled by candidates before a rally can proceed.

“If a candidate is granted a football pitch for a rally, those attending this rally will be regulated to ensure no physical contact. This measure will also deal a heavy blow to those who ferry voters or intend to hold processions after or before holding rallies” source explained.

CAN POLLS BE POSTPONED?

Our sources said that in the worst case scenario, postponement of elections would only be by dividing them into two. This it is feared is the second option the Western democracies are planning against Uganda in case COVID-19 makes far reaching impact on our economy.

“COVID-19 is a global pandemic. It’s not a Ugandan problem alone.

Therefore, the excuse of no funds to hold general elections may not be accepted. What we hear is that if we insist on postponing, they have options” top NRM bosses revealed.

Among the options include doubling our budget for elections in case the regime says COVID-19 finished all funds.

“This will deal a big blow to those who want to postpone. Government can’t refuse to hold elections because if we do, they will say; the president is just fearing elections. The second option on their table is to tell us to allow elections but modify” sources added.

By modifying, this means there’s a possibility of Ugandans voting for president first and later after about three months, even MPs and local government can be elected. All these would be ready by May12 when a new president-elect takes oath at Kololo.

Our sources said that Kampala is also keeping a keen eye on the US especially on whether it will go ahead with it’s November elections or postpone as a result of COVID-19. It should be known that US has the highest number of causalities on this pandemic. Therefore, the regime is closely monitoring how US would deal with it’s electoral calender in the face of this problem.

“If US holds it’s elections, then we have no way out. South Korea has just had a successful election also. Therefore, it is still a tricky situation to all those who clamor for postponement” the sources added. A group of NRM legislators led by two from EALA (Denis Namara) and Paul Musamali) are leading a crusade to push elections to 2023 citing lack of budget as a result of COVID-19.

A similar proposal is reported to have been mooted to the president by a section of women under NRM women’s league who sat in Mbale on Women’s day. The proposal was handed to top bosses in NRM Secretariat for onward submission to party chairman also president Museveni. We established that the proposal would be discussed by NRM CEC at an opportune time.

NRM UPPER HAND DUE TO COVID-19

As they say that; however much a man is careless, he can never sit on his testacles. This is exactly what NRM is doing. With the careful enforcement of the president’s directives on COVID-19, there’s already an opportunity for the ruling party to outsmart the opposition.

For example, in case the two restrictions (curfew and social distancing) are retained, it means the only opportunity for the opposition to market itself shall be through media. And because 98percent media houses in Uganda are owned by people close to the regime, this means the opposition is headed for a tougher situation.

“NRM will be put in a real position over the opposition. If you don’t have money to buy airtime/space for three months, just leave. Whoever has economic muscle will buy. UBC being a national broadcaster, will allow some space to the opposition also but under certain rules. So, even here, the opposition will end up saying nothing because of those rules dictated by UBC” sources explained.

However, as the ruling party plans all this, on its table is the issue of internal rivalry. This is said to be threatening it’s unity for a common purpose-defeating the opposition! And yet, already, the NRM primaries’ roadmap seems to have been affected by COVID-19 outbreak. As a result, intelligence is advising that the party chairman exercises his Constitutional powers within the NRM constitution and dictates a list of NRM MP flag bearers since there’s no time left to plan, prepare and execute internal elections.

“A precedent was set in 2011 where he dictated that status quo remains on all CEC members. This is how all of them retained their seats. Anything within the party that Museveni thinks is within the armpits of stabilizing the party, he will do it. When it comes to the existence of a country, power has to be called upon” a top source explained to us.

The Second Opinion magazine recently reported a plan to extend 2021 elections.

Secret high profile meetings involving senior bush-war generals and some opposition bosses in DP and FDC were going on. The only challenge was on how to justify the extension by two years.