Battle for Kampala: Why Lukwago Must Sweat To Retain His Seat

By Henry Mulindwa

The battle for key political positions in Kampala City is increasingly getting tougher, with all indications that incumbent Lord Mayor Erias Lukwago is under threat.

So far four people have expressed interest in unseating Lukwago and surprisingly, some are fellow opposition politicians like Kawempe North MP Latif Ssebaggala, former Makindye East MP Michael Mabikke and singer Jose Chameleon, who is coming in on the Democratic Party ticket.

Others vying for lord Mayorship are NRM Kampala region chairman Godfrey Nyakana and former security minister Lt. Gen. Henry Tumukunde.

The entry of many seemingly formidable candidates against Lukwago is a pointer to the long-held determination by the ruling party, the National Resistance Movement, to kick him out after protracted legal schemes failed to have the DP-rebel Lord Mayor lose or cooperate with government.

It should be recalled that when he won his seat resoundingly in 2011, the state instituted an inquiry chaired by Justice Catherine Bamugemereire, in what many say was a ploy to censure Lukwago, accusing him of abuse of office. This failed. And in 2016, the majority of councilors who participated in his censure were defeated, with another big number coming in as opposition-leaning.

However, despite subscribing to the DP, Lukwago has refused to work with party president Norbert Mao, whom he accuses of being ‘a state mole’. Instead, the Lord Mayor has consistently hobnobbed with opposition honcho Dr. Warren Kizza Besigye Kifefe. And now the question on people’s lips is: ‘should Lukwago choose to run for office again’, will he win again in Kampala? 

Background

In the run up to the 2011 elections, Lukwago, then the Kampala Central MP, decided to abandon his parliamentary seat to become the pioneer Lord Mayor. This was after the government introduced a law that carved out Kampala from Local Government [district] administration to become an Authority. As all this was happening, even the political tempo in the country mainly in the Buganda region had drastically changed, with new pressure groups emerging to determine the next parliamentarians and local government leaders.

The declaration of former Buganda Katikkiro Joseph Mulwanyammuli Ssemwogerere to cooperate with opposition FDC tilted the political schemes of the ruling NRM in the central region as most of the opposition candidates rallied themselves around a pressure group called Ssuubi 2011.

Lukwago was among the Ssuubi 2011 crusaders and beneficiaries; he easily won the Lord Mayorship even after his known political party, the DP, had refused to officially endorse him. Lukwago rode on Ssuubi agenda and on winning, promised to ‘make things right’ in Kampala.

However, in 2016 Ssuubi had dissipated and, Lukwago, acting in defiance, formed a parallel group in DP called Truth and Justice [TJ] with a radical group of youths enjoined in SOLIDA! This group worked hard for him to trounce all other candidates for the post of Lord Mayor including DP’s official candidate Hajji Issa Kikungwe [RIP].

Electioneering for 2021

And now that the 2021 elections are fast closing in, the politics of pressure groups particularly in Buganda, is putting Lukwago in an almost similar situation.

For now, the People Power movement under Kyadondo East MP Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine seems to be the ‘guiding light’ for most of the candidates in opposition, mainly in the Buganda region.

Indeed, Lukwago has been cagey about his political relationship with Bobi Wine and not surprising, he together with Mukono Municipality MP Betty Nambooze never helped the Kyarenga singer during his Kyadondo East MP by-election campaign in 2016. Yet at that time the duo were considered crowd pullers. But that ‘refusal’ to lend Bobi Wine a hand in 2016 seems to have had a boomeranging effect and according to sources, as the country edges close to 2021, it has started to bite politically as several pro-Bobi Wine candidates have come up to contest against Lukwago and Nambooze.

As a result, insiders have intimated to The Second Opinion that the recent formation of Besigye’s ‘People’s Government’ where he named Lukwago and Nambooze as Deputy President and spokesperson, respectively, was a tactical move meant to leverage them into a ‘power sharing’ deal with Bobi’s People Power movement.

“If Besigye is to negotiate anything with People Power, the duo will have a role to play politically. Besigye will try to persuade Bobi not to front anyone against these two. Otherwise, as it stands now, Lukwago and Nambooze cannot negotiate on their own with Bobi unless their kingmaker Besigye uses them as a bargaining chip for negotiating a political deal with People Power,” a source said close to Lukwago said.

Now, other information emerging from the gravepine indicates that both Lukwago and Nambooze have scaled down on attacks against Bobi Wine, for fear of a backlash by the People Power adherents, who seem to have grown in numbers.

In fact, sources said it is the reason Lukwago has decided to provide pro bono legal services to People Power music promoter Bajjo who is now in jail for allegedly inciting violence.

“This isn’t an innocent move by Lukwago but it is a sign of political reconciliation with Bobi whom he didn’t support right from the start. On the other hand, Nambooze is also working closely with Bobi Wine’s spokesperson Joel Ssenyonyi and emphasizes the need for cooperation among forces of change,” a source stated.

Already, Kawempe North MP Latif Ssebaggala has positioned himself as the People Power-anointed contestant for Lord Mayorship. Also, musician Joseph Mayanja aka Jose Chameleone recently joined DP in a bid to become the Lord Mayor. Like Lukwago, Ssebaggala is also DP, but he is currently an MP on an ‘Independent’ ticket. However, both seemingly subscribe to the People Power under Bobi Wine, positioning themselves for a race in which they are going to face the ‘NRM sole candidate’ for Godfrey Nyakaana, the Kampala region chairperson who also previously served as Kampala Central Division Chairman.

The Chameleone paradox for Lukwago, Nambooze

Meanwhile, sources have said that the early return of Wale Wale singer Joseph Mayanja aka Chameleone to DP was meant to lock out all ‘rebel members’ among them Lukwago and Nambooze who are seen as being opposed to the leadership of Norbert Mao.

“This puts all anti-Mao DP members in a tricky situation. Whereas Chameleone comes in to tackle Lukwago, Rev. Peter Bakaluba Mukasa who contested against Nambooze in Mukono North on the NRM ticket defected to DP and was officially given the DP flag. He is now active in mainstream DP politics under Mao unlike Nambooze who hobnobs with Besigye and yet FDC doesn’t sell in her constituency,” a source privy to the sheninagans explained. The source added that that was the reason Nambooze is beginning to embrace the People Power movement in order to attract the ‘Bobi factor’, despite not supporting the singer for the Kyadondo East seat in 2016.

Sources added that in the case of Nambooze and Rev. Bakaluba Mukasa, Besigye faces divided loyalty because he might not be hostile to Bakaluba Mukasa, a man who risked his job at Radio Simba and hosted Besigye on a political talk show called Olutindo [the Bridge]. At that time Besigye was facing serious charges that almost landed him in prison.

But the possible contest between Nambooze and Rev. Bakaluba Mukasa will not be new as the duo previously contested for the Mukono North seat in 2010 by-election, in which Nambooze emerged winner with about a 2000 vote margin against then NRM-funded Bakaluba.

Subsequently, Bakaluba fled Mukono North and instead went for the Mukono South seat in 2011, but also lost and went into political oblivion, only to resurface in the run-up to 2021 and announcing a defection from NRM to DP.

But amidst all this scheming, it is said that since Nambooze now represents Mukono Municipality, Bakaluba is being lined up to oust Water State Minister Ronald Kibuule as Mukono North MP. Interestingly, some political pundits aver that both Rev. Bakaluba Mukasa and Chameleone still subscribe to the NRM, and point to 2016, when the latter together with 90% of Uganda’s top artistes coined the Tubonga Naawe song for NRM candidate Museveni.

In a related development, political analyst Dr. Anaas Kaliisa, says the decision by DP to field Chameleone against Lukwago is revenge served cold for the Lord Mayor’s refusal to recognize Mao’s leadership.

Dr. Kalisa however says Lukwago is going to trounce all his opponents including Chameleone whom he calls a ‘Museveni project’.

“DP is simply revenging against Lukwago because he refused to join (cooperate) with them and instead works with Kizza Besigye. But this strategy is likely to backfire because the people of Kampala aren’t fools. I am sure, if Chameleone isn’t a Museveni project, then he (Museveni) ceases to be a President who wants to retain his power. Museveni doesn’t want Lukwago and it is the reason he will put even 15 candidates against him. I want to tell you that Lukwago will still triumph. Getting someone to remove him and MP Munyagwa; will be a big task. For Chameleone, one only needs to play Tubonga naawe song at his rally venue and you turn people away,” he says.

Chameleone also faces the ‘Ragga Dee factor’. Born Daniel Kazibwe, this artiste stood against Lukwago with full state backing but voters ditched the singer. Not only did Ragga Dee lose but also all NRM MP aspirants and other elected leaders including the President performed badly in Kampala. This precedent thus shows that celebrity status without adequate social capital is inconsequential. One may want to argue that Bobi Wine rode on his celebrity status and so can Chameleone. Deeper analysis however shows that for a long time, Bobi wine was investing social capital by singing about people’s problems while he also rejected the Tubonga nawe project money and even stood with Kizza Besigye during his arrest shortly after the 2016 elections. But the biggest threat for Chameleone remains the scandal of the death of Karamagi which happened at his home in Seguku. By the look of things now, this has become some sort of holing charge against the star singer and it is apparent that the state always brings it out whenever it wants to coax him into doing something. It is therefore no wonder that following his unveiling by DP, news of this case made it to the government newspaper. “If Chameleone is not a Museveni project like it is being touted, then he will most likely not even going to make it to the ballot paper; he could even be in jail over this particular case by the time the ballots are printed,” opined an analyst who preferred to remain anonymous.

As for Tumukunde, Kaliisa says he faces the challenge of explaining why he wants a Kampala city seat when Mbarara has also become a city, and thinks the General stands little chance.

However, other sources suggest that Tumukunde stands a better deal as he knows Kampala politics well and also the fact that he is ‘part of the system’.

About Kampala’s MP seats

In 2016, NRM lost all parliamentary seats in Kampala. The influence of Lukwago and Besigye was high and this is the reason several candidates the two backed made it. On the other hand, the President [Museveni] blamed then KCCA Executive Director Jennifer Ssemakula Musisi for the political loss in the city, arguing that city dwellers were disgruntled by her mismanagement of the city affairs, and voted against the ruling party.

Musisi ‘resigned’ a few months ago but that did not stop Mr. Museveni from throwing other jibes at her,  the latest when the President said that he ‘regretted’ appointing her to that position.

Lubaga North

Relentless in his efforts to reclaim the trust of voters in Kampala, sources said the President appointed opposition stalwart Beti Olive Kamya as minister for Kampala after she had lost her MP bid to Moses Kasibante, a pro-Lukwago/Besigye devotee.

The sources further say that her appointment as KCCA minister was partly meant to deflate Lukwago and also to bolster her chances of reclaiming the Lubaga North constituency, an area she represented in the 8^th Parliament.

Kasibante joined Parliament following a court ruling against then NRM MP Katongole Singh who was ejected on grounds that he was illegally sworn-in as MP. In fact, sources say that Kasibante, who is also a product of Ssuubi 2011 pressure group, nearly stood down for Singh Katongole during the campaigns after a section of his agents negotiated a Shs25 million deal with the former NRM Treasurer in talks held at Imperial Royale Hotel in upscale Nakasero.

According to our sources, the Nakasero deal flopped only after Lukwago and Nambooze got wind of it and ‘ordered’ Kasibante to remain in the race and ‘leave other things to us’.

“This is why Kasibante to date cannot bad-mouth Lukwago or Nambooze because the duo allegedly hold his political fortunes. But now that Katongole has gone back to school to attain the relevant academic papers, he has lined himself up to trounce Kasibante while at the same time Kamya [NRM-leaning] and FDC’s John Kikonyogo want the same seat,” the source averred.

Kato Lubwama’s Lubaga South

In Lubaga South that is represented by comedian Kato Lubwama, things are not cool either.

Kato is a product of Lukwago’s pressure group-TJ/SOLIDA which unfortunately is reported to have phased out after following an ‘unholy alliance’ agreed upon by Kato Lubwama and former Inspector General of Police (IGP) Kale Kayihura.

In fact, sources suggest that this alleged ‘cooperation’ between Kato and NRM agents led by Gen. Kayihura is the reason his court case challenging his election as MP has dragged on.

Further, sources say, Kato is neither party to Lukwago’s type of defiance politics or the activism espoused by People Power, something that has reportedly put him in the shooting range of possible People Power candidates. However, Lubwama, who among others faces People Power candidates Kalifa Aganaga and Joel Mukasa, has reportedly started making amends with the People Power, whose leader Bobi Wine, he had previously criticized.

Makindye East

Here Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) candidate Ibrahim Kasozi, a pro-Muntu adherent is likely to tussle it out with fellow opposition candidate Michael Mabikke, a former MP for the same constituency, who is currently aligned to Nobert Mao’s DP mainstream faction.

He is however, reported to be among the FDC members who were pro-Muntu. He faces fellow opposition member Michael Mabikke who is now aligned to DP bloc under Norbert Mao. 

Kasozi’s bouquet however seems to be littered with thorny roses as his dalliance with former FDC boss Gen. Muntu, who parted ways with the biggest opposition political entity, might rub the FDC the wrong way, in the process paving the way for a possible four -horse race.

But currently, as Kasozi and Mabikke battle for the seat, the NRM is also pushing John Ssimbwa who, despite being NRM; doesn’t bad-mouth the People Power movement.

As for Mabikke, he represented this constituency until 2011 when he stood for Lord Mayorship. He however, hates Besigye with passion, accusing the latter of not supporting him for the post yet he [Mabikke] was the ‘official’ candidate under the Inter-Party Cooperation [IPC] arrangement and decided to back Lukwago.

Kawempe South

In this constituency represented by FDC’s Mubarack Muyangwa, things are not rosy for the incumbent as former MP Sebuliba Mutumba wants to return.

It should be known that Mutumba, a fervent DP adherent, is in good books with the ruling NRM, largely because of playing sensitive roles in cahoots with NRM historical Tom Kayongo during the bush war that brought the current government to power.

“Their story has something related to NRA workings around Kasubi tombs during the bush-war,” a source said.

Nakawa

FDC’s Michael Kabaziguruka became the area MP after defeating NRM’s Freddie Ruhindi, a former Justice and Constitutional Affairs Minister.

But sources say that despite being an opposition politician, residents are skeptical about his deliverables largely because of spending much of his parliamentary term between prison and hospital.

In the early days of NRM Nakawa was represented by veteran politician Jaberi Bidandi Ssali, and come 2021 it is stated that NRM wants to front his son Moses Ssali aka Bebe Cool to uproot Kabaziguruka. On the other hand, DP’s Kenneth Paul Kakande is also reportedly considering giving it another try.

Kampala Central

Muhammad Nsereko [Independent] might face an uphill task as People Power is reported to be fronting Fred Nyanzi aka Chairman Nyanzi, Bobi Wine’s elder brother.

Nsereko is also unfortunate to carry a tag of being an NRM mole who just ‘speaks opposition politics’.

It is against such a background that Nsereko was recently accused of sweet-talking Bobi Wine to back off his plans of contesting for presidency in 2021, allegedly in exchange for cash as the Kyarenga singer ‘waits for 2026’.

Nsereko has since denied that allegation.