

By George Mangula
Global exports in January 2020 totalled 10.29 million bags, compared with 11.14 million bags in January 2019, according to International Coffee Organisation (ICO) in its latest report, which also adds that global coffee prices have continued to slump in January.
Exports in the first four months of coffee year 2019/20 decreased by 5.8% to 39.53 million bags compared to 41.95 million bags in 2018/19. During this period, shipments of Brazilian Naturals declined by 11.8% to 13.28 million bags and Other Milds decreased by 6.6% to 6.46 million bags.
However, exports of Colombian Milds have increased by 0.6% to 5.27 million bags in October 2019 to January 2020. Robusta shipments fell 1.4% to 14.51 million bags.
According to ICO report, Exports from Africa in the first four months of coffee year 2019/20 increased 9.5% to 4.38 million bags as shipments from the region’s three largest producers all increased. Uganda was the largest regional exporter, shipping 1.62 million bags, an increase of 10% on the first four months of coffee year 2018/19 due to higher prices in December and the greater availability of coffee this season.
Uganda’s output in 2019/20 increased due to new trees planted several years ago coming into production and favourable weather. Shipments from Ethiopia grew by 18.2% to 1.17 million bags, and from Côte d’Ivoire by 5.6% to 558,000 bags, as improvements in productivity were reported for both countries. However, Tanzania’s exports decreased by 1.6% to 393,000 bags.
In 2019/20 world coffee production is estimated at 168.86 million bags, a decrease of 0.8% on 2018/19. Arabica production is estimated 3.9% lower at 96.37 million bags while Robusta output is estimated 3.7% higher at 72.5 million bags. World coffee consumption is estimated 169.34 million bags, 0.7% greater than in 2018/19, following a year of exceptional consumption growth in Europe and North America.
In coffee year 2019/20, a deficit of 0.48 million bags is currently estimated, however Covid-19 presents considerable downside risk to global coffee consumption.