International tourist numbers could fall 60-80 percent in 2020, UNWTO reports

By George Mangula

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a 22 percent drop in international tourist arrivals during the first quarter of 2020, the latest data from the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) shows.

According to UNWTO, the crisis could lead to an annual decline of between 60 percent and 80 percent when compared with 2019 figures. This, the agency says, places millions of livelihoods around the world at risk and threatens to roll back progress made in advancing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili says: “The world is facing an unprecedented health and economic crisis. Tourism has been hit hard, with millions of jobs at risk in one of the most labour-intensive sectors of the economy.”

UNWTO World Tourism Barometer say global arrivals in March dropped sharply by 57 percent following the start of a lockdown in many countries, as well as the widespread introduction of travel restrictions and the closure of airports and national borders. This translates into a loss of 67 million international arrivals and about US$80 billion in receipts.

International tourism 2020 scenarios

Prospects for the year have been downgraded several times since the outbreak and uncertainty continues to dominate. Current scenarios point to possible declines in arrivals of 58% to 78% for the year. These depend on the speed of containment and the duration of travel restrictions and shutdown of borders.

The impact of the loss of demand in international travel could translate into: Loss of 850 million to 1.1 billion international tourists, loss of US$910 billion to US$1.2 trillion in export revenues from tourism and 100 to 120 million direct tourism jobs at risk

This is by far the worst crisis that international tourism has faced since records began (1950). The impact will be felt to varying degrees in the different global regions and at overlapping times, with Asia and the Pacific expected to rebound first.

Recovery in 2021expected

Domestic demand is expected to recover faster than international demand according to the UNWTO Panel of Experts survey. The majority expects to see signs of recovery by the final quarter of 2020 but mostly in 2021. Based on previous crises, leisure travel is expected to recover quicker, particularly travel for visiting friends and relatives, than business travel.

The estimates regarding the recovery of international travel is more positive in Africa and the Middle East with most experts foreseeing recovery still in 2020. Experts in the Americas are the least optimistic and least likely to believe in recovery in 2020, while in Europe and Asia the outlook is mixed, with half of the experts expecting to see recovery within this year.