Did Museveni save FDC from fatally breaking up?

How Bobi Wine’s inopportune arrest inadvertently diverted attention from FDC’s internal conflicts

On Monday August 6 2018, Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) party headquarters informed the Speaker of Parliament about the re-organisation of parliament’s minority leadership. As is required, the letter was signed by Nathan Nandala Mafabi, the MP for Budadiri West and FDC’s Party Secretary General.

In the re-organisation (Ugandans tend to call it reshuffle), the party leadership dropped Winnie Kiiza (Kasese District Woman Representative) as the Leader of Opposition and replaced her with Betty Aol Achan (Gulu District Woman Representative). There were also changes in the leadership of parliament’s oversight committees (traditionally chaired by the opposition).

Appearing on a radio talkshow on Saturday August 11, one of the FDC MPs who had lost the chairmanship of an oversight committee jeered: this was not a reshuffle but a purge. Word!

Where does the word purge come from? Most of the FDC MPs supported the candidature of Gen. Mugisha Muntu. And the ‘reshuffle’ was seen by many as a purge against those who didn’t support Eng. Patrick Oboi Amuriat (the eventual winner of the FDC Party President).

And with the ‘feeling of being purged’, there followed unconfirmed reports of the possibility of some members quitting FDC and forming their own party.

Incidentally, the idea of a Third Force had been floating around since Gen. Mugish Muntu lost the election for FDC Party President to Eng. Patrick Oboi Amuriat. In fact there existed a rather popular feeling that Mugsha Muntu would serve Uganda better if he left FDC and formed another party. This popular feeling was actually bi-partisan and non-partisan.

A very cautious man, Gen. Mugisha Muntu went slow on the idea of forming another party; but…? Yes, but he organised and held consultation conferences throughout the country. These consultations were viewed by many as a (and tended to be skewed towards) prepping exercise for the launch of another party. And then Bugiri happened!

There was a by-election in the newly created Bugiri Municipality. Even when it was clear candidate Mr. Asuman Basalirwa (Party President for Forum Justice, better known as Jeema) had a more national appeal, stature and exposure than Ms Eunice Namatende (the FDC candidate), the party (FDC) stuck with their candidate (naturally).

This alone created unease in the opposition fraternity in which Asuman Basalirwa (the Justice Forum Party President) was a luminary. Even inside the FDC, there was a feeling that the party could have endorsed and supported Mr. Asuman Basalirwa as the sole opposition candidate.

Mr. Robert Kyagulanyi (MP for Kyadondo East, better known as Bobi Wine) threw his weight behind Asuman Basalirwa’s candidature. But if FDC’s refusal to endorse and support Asuman Basalirwa’s candidature caused some unease inside the FDC and the entire political opposition, it also created a phenomenon: the Bobi Wine Phenomenon.

At the final tally of votes, Mr. Asuman Basalirwa (behind whom was the Bobi Wine Phenomenon) won the elections leaving the FDC candidate in his distant wake: she was in third place; even behind the NRM candidate.

When FDC was still smarting from the defeat in Bugiri, party headquarters announced the re-organisation of opposition leadership in parliament. What followed was an open public expression of what had hitherto been a muted feeling of dissatisfaction. It turned into a near-open rebellion.

It was during this situation of ‘uncertainty’ in FDC that Arua Municipality by elections were held. And with this near open rebellion, some FDC MPs openly supported the candidature of Kassiono Ezati Wadri, a senior FDC member who was uncharacteristically standing as an independent candidate.

The sense of unease in the FDC, coupled with what was now clearly the Bobi Wine Phenomenon, was brought to bear on the Arua Municipality by elections. And then President Museveni threw a spanner in the works by arresting and detaining Bobi Wine. The result: globalising the Bobi Wine Phenomenon.

Sources in the intelligence community told The Second Opinion that scenarios had been built based on their assessment of the possible outcome of the elections. They expected either Kassiano Wadri or NRM’s Nusra Tiperu to take the day; and placed the FDC candidate in third position.

But they were aware that if Kassiano Wadri won the elections, there was likely to be an open rebellion in the FDC (leading to the formation of another political party).

And because of what Kassiano Wadri’s victory portended for FDC; a victory for the NRM candidate was thought to be good for the FDC. ‘Fortunately for FDC (yes, fortunately), things happened so fast that the scenarios the intelligence community had built were overtaken by events.

First: Bobi Wine’s driver was shot dead in a clear case of assassination. Second: Bobi Wine and several opposition MPs (one of whom FDC) who had camped in Arua Municipality to shore up support for Kassiano Wadri were arrested (including their candidate Kassiano Wadri).

Bobi Wine’s arrest and the consequent international voices calling for his release expanded the Bobi Wine Phenomenon beyond Bobi Wine the person and Member of Parliament for a peri-urban constituency.

Three: Kassiano Wadri won the elections. But with the custodial detention of Bobi Wine, Kassiano Wadri, the scenario of a march on Najjanakumbi by the renegade FDC MPs who supported Wadri could not play out. All the efforts were put on the release of Bobi Wine and the others.

In the circumstances, FDC survived the heckling similar to what followed their loss in Bugiri.

And by the time Bobi Wine and the others were bailed on Monday August 27 2018, the expected open rebellion in FDC had been calmed by President Museveni’s inopportune arrest and detention of Bobi Wine and the consequent globalisation of the Bobi Wine Phenomenon.

One can imagine what would have happened if Mr. Museveni had not arrested the MPs and birthed the worldwide Bobi Wine Phenomenon? ENDS

 BY Abel Nzanzu