NPA Names Strategies To Achieve 2021-2026 Manifesto

The mandate of the National Planning Authority (NPA) is mainly on development of plans and evidence-based policy guidance.  Regarding the implementation of the manifesto, NPA does not directly participate in the implementation of the proposed commitments but rather supports MDAs and other stakeholders in the development of the strategic plans, progammes and projects. This is according to Sam Kinyera Obwoya, the Deputy NPA Chairman.

“We therefore review our performance in delivering the manifesto by looking at our deliverables and the attainment of results as contained in the NDP results framework,” he says.

However, he says the National Resistance Movement (NRM) Manifesto commitments and the Strategic Guidelines and Directives are consistent with the National Development Plan (NDP) strategic priorities and were designed to propel Uganda towards middle income.

According to Obwoya, government did not perform so well in the period under review.

For instance, Obwoya said on Tuesday at the OPM auditorium that Uganda’s economy registered an average annual real GDP growth rate of 4.9%. This, he said, is lower than the NDPII targeted average annual real GDP growth of 6.3% in 2019/20 and much lower than the Vision target of 8.2%.

“As part of the planning process, NPA carried out an assessment    to establish the challenges that were still outstanding on the basis of which NPDIII was produced in the last year of the Manifesto implementation.  That assessment process recognized the fact that we did not achieve growth and the quality of life targets as anticipated in NDPII. For instance, there is poverty reversal from 19.7% to 21.4%, the COVID-19 pandemic and natural disasters which affected the performance of the productive sectors,” he said.

He attributed these to a number of challenges such as:

• Youth bulge –Youth constitutes more than 50% of the population. The youth bulge has both positive and negative consequences associated with the demographic dividend.  By investing in the youth, the country will have productive labour force that will contribute to economic growth and that requires inputs into education skilling and mindset change in addition to provisions for health and their involvement in economic activities.  Conversely, this puts pressure on the budget since investments will be redirected towards provision of social services against the investments in the productive sector.
• High cost of electricity – Progress has been made in reduction of the cost of electricity over the last 4 years from 9 cents to 8 cents and from 16 cents to 9.8 cents for extra-large and large industrial consumers respectively. However, it is still higher than the target of 5 cents per Unit. The cost is even higher for medium industrial consumers at 15.6 cents for a unit and for commercial consumers (cottage industries) at 17.5 cents per unit;
• Persistent vulnerabilities and wide-regional disparities in attaining required poverty reduction targets – The percentage of people living below the poverty line (1.00 USD per day) was 21.4% in FY2017/18 compared to NDPII target of 14.2%. Moreover, there are wide regional disparities with Bukedi (47%), Busoga (42%), Bugisu (40.7%) and Teso (25%) experiencing reversals compared to the previous poverty levels;
• Labor market skills mismatch – The education and training system produces skills different from those required by the market.With the industrialization drive, there is for example, high demand for internationally certified technical and craftsmanship skills, which are not available on the market;
• Limited access to and high cost of capital – There are high interest rates and, high collateral requirements. The main source of development finance for businesses is short-term credit mainly from commercial banks where lending rates average 20%. Furthermore, 20% of the adult population in 2018 access financial services informally while 22% have no access at all;
• Low capacity in public service and prevalence of corruption – The Civil service is weak and not adequately equipped to drive development. For instance, a number of project ideas that were included in NDPII have not been implemented.  There are reported leakages of public resources as evidenced from Auditor General’s reports and Inspectorate of Government investigations.  These two combined have affected effectiveness and efficiency in government and partly this explains why a number of project ideas that were included in NDPII have not been implemented;
• Continued reduction in the forest cover as well as wetland degradation and encroachment – The forest cover reduced to 9.5% in FY17/18 from 20% in 1986/87 while wetland cover reduced from 13% to 10.9% over the same period. The implication is increased vulnerabilities and disparities in incomes as well as loss of livelihood to the population and reduction in GDP growth rates;
• Slow Project Implementation – Implementation of core projects have been slow, thus, adversely affecting growth and job creation. Out of the 42 NDPII core projects, only 17 are on schedule, while 5 are under implementation but behind schedule. The rest are either at feasibility stage or have not yet started.

As a result, the NPA has identified a number of strategies to achieve targets in the next government.

• Maintaining stable macro-economic environment: through among other things sustaining a stable exchange rate regime; inflation targeting to ensure low and stable prices; maintaining a stable fiscal policy, and, pursuing policies designed to lower interest rates.
• Reducing cost of doing business: through increasing access to reliable, stable and affordable energy; Reducing transport costs through improving interconnectivity and regular maintenance of existing transport infrastructure stock; Reducing the cost and increasing reliability of Internet; etc
• Reducing transport costs through improving interconnectivity and regular maintenance of existing transport infrastructure stock.  It is recommended that Government continues prioritizing investments in transport infrastructure to increase the Country’s competitiveness. In that regard, focus should be on increasing the connectivity within the country, region and the global markets. 
• Import Substitution and Export Promotion Strategy through completing the development of at least one industrial site in each of the 18 zones of the country to fully serviced Industrial Parks; All wealth creation funds should be consolidated into one, and some of which should be used to capitalize the Uganda Development Bank
• Commercialization of agriculture: Agricultural sector contributes 26% of total GDP and forms the main export to our regional market. To generate sufficient production volumes to sustain domestic (food security) and external markets, it is critical that we commercialize agriculture focusing on: Organization of farmers into clusters to support them to produce reliably and consistently, Strengthening agricultural extension systems anchored at the parish as the planning and implementation level; Increasing use of water for production, mechanized irrigation, including water storage, Scaling up existing agricultural credit and guarantee schemes as a way of providing affordable agricultural finance and insurance;
• Harnessing the Tourism potential: this can be achieved by improving tourism related infrastructure, Targeted development of tourism products Developing Skills essential for Tourism growth, increasing affordable accommodation in the tourist hotspots outside of the Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area, Aggressive marketing especially in non-traditional markets, increasing private sector access to cheap long-term credit, Strengthening regulation and enforcement of standards.
• Promotion of Science, Technology, Engineering and Innovation: To realize this, there is need to; build science, technology, engineering and innovation infrastructure, provide hands-on-training of scientists at all levels; develop policy and institutional framework for importation of appropriate technology in order to reduce the research and development time and cost of investment; strengthen the legal framework around innovation to increase technology adoption and diffusion so as to maximize the number of innovations being translated into commercial products and thus the number of factories/jobs being started/created;
• Mineral Beneficiation and Oil refining: It is, proposed that priority should be on fast-tracking interventions aimed at facilitating the exploration, extraction and processing of Oil and Gas as well as the mining and beneficiation of seven (7) minerals namely: Iron Ore, Phosphates, Copper, Gold, Marble/Limestone, Dimension Stones, and Sand/Aggregates.
• Promote Private Sector Investment  – Foreign Direct Investment and Domestic Investment: The proposed areas of focus include: strengthening institutions for development financing, for instance, recapitalizing UDB; strengthening the investment and industrialization role of government, for instance, through strengthening the role of UDC; reviving and strengthening the cooperative movement, including the cooperative bank; providing a wider range of long-term finance options at affordable rates in NDPIII priority areas e.g. agricultural finance; etc
• Mindset change to promote focus on development: Areas of focus include: Review of the mandates and coordination mechanisms of the agencies involved in these interventions with a view of improving their effectiveness and Implementation of a National Service programme to empower citizens with information to change their outlook on life and the opportunities it presents,
• Exploiting opportunities of urbanization to drive growth: Urbanization is a key driver of growth. 65% of non-agriculture GDP is generated by the Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area (GKMA), However, the potential of urbanization is constrained by; unplanned and uncoordinated developments and limited enforcement of existing regulations. To exploit the opportunities of urbanization the focus areas will be:  Development of Physical, Spatial and Master plans for the regional and strategic cities as proposed in Vision 2040; Development of settlement plans around existing and planned industrial, mineral, science and ICT parks; etc
• Increasing the stock of skilled, innovative and healthy population. This should be done by: improving the quality of education at all levels e.g. through reduction of teacher to student ratios; leadership development for education managers; Operationalization of the recently reviewed national curriculum for secondary education; strengthening the link of higher education to industry for instance through internships, attachments, and involvement of industry practitioners in curriculum design to strengthen research, innovation and acquisition of practical knowledge; etc
• Increasing Domestic Revenue Mobilization: it is recommended that government: Maintains a stable and predictable tax regime over the medium term given the consensus that the country has limited room for introducing new measures without overburdening the tax payer; Strengthens the enabling environment for tax collection through for instance upgrading the eTax system, integrating data management systems across government, expanding the metrics used to assess URA performance, and addressing the perception of corruption among tax officials, and establishing a Tax Ombudsman; etc
• Promotion of Social Services based on the sub county-Parish model. The Parish Development Model (PDM) is the last mile strategy by Government of Uganda for improving incomes and welfare of Ugandans at household level. It is an extension of the whole-of-government approach to development under NDPIII, with the Parish as the lowest administrative and operational hub for delivering services closer to the people and hence foster local economic development.