Opposition parties are certain that NUP presidential candidate Robert Kyagulanyi alias Bobi Wine is going to defeat incumbent president Yoweri Kaguta Museveni Tibuhaburwa but his chances of being declared are next to impossible. As such, two projects are allegedly being worked on. One is to force a total government breakdown or force Museveni to accept a power-sharing deal to avoid bloodshed. This is according to highly placed sources knowledgeable on the ongoing efforts by the opposition parties to win elections. But will Museveni accept this Unity government?
In 2008, president Museveni hinted on the fact that his government would never reach a level of sharing power with others. This was on December 31, 2008 at Rwakitura where he addressed scribes as he gave his New Year’s address to the nation. Museveni who was by then facing internal contradictions in the party and also the fact that his neighbor in Kenya was emerging from a bloody election that gave birth to a unity government, said that power-sharing wasn’t anything close to his imagination but instead he preferred cohesion. “NRM does not need power-sharing. In the coming elections, we are going to sweep. All opposition propaganda we have solved them. The Kony war, Karamojong rustling etc. Power sharing is correct where it’s needed, but where it’s not needed, it’s not in order. That’s why we emphasize cohesion. Power sharing is good where there’s no alternative but for me, I prefer cohesion. (There) you can work,” he said adding that ‘like now, we have some MPs who are making a lot of noise, but we’re going to deal with them. We can’t tolerate people like those who oppose government programs.’Museveni holds a stand which on the other hand is part of the alternative proposals that top opposition gurus are mooting in case the national electoral commission ‘refuses’ to declare NUP presidential candidate Kyagulanyi the winner of the January 14 presidential election winner — in case the musician- -politician wins. Top sources within the opposition opine that whereas Bobi has support, it is not enough to make him decisively defeat Museveni. Hence, this has created fear within the opposition ranks that the Electoral Commission chairman Simon Byabakama may not be able to declare him winner. It is against this background the opposition strategists are mooting power sharing as Plan B should the Thursday elections go as per their calculation. “The support is there; it’s massive but it’s not enough to decisively defeat Museveni. What we can only do is to force a power sharing deal with him. In any case, we fear that even if Kyagulanyi gets 99 percent votes, the EC will not declare him but will declare the NRM candidate,” a top source revealed but refused to be quoted.
In Comes Foreign Powers
In his most recent interview with foreign media, president Museveni decried the fact that Bobi Wine is being sponsored by foreigners who even include homosexuals) to topple him. And incidentally, the opposition Plan B has hallmarks of this foreign arm, with strategists mulling over evoking western powers should there be a deadlock after Thursday’s election. Particularly, this is being looked at as the other alternative that will be used to concretize the power-sharing deal should tomorrow’s election ns go in Bobi Wine’s favour. “There are two proposals available on the table: one is to force a total ‘government breakdown’ or to work with the West to pressurize Museveni to accept a power sharing government,” a source said.
THE DEMANDS IN FIGURES
We have exclusively learnt that should power-sharing become a reality in this election, the opposition wants 30 out of the 86 ministries. As per the plan, the opposition wants key dockets, with some of those being eyed including finance, internal affairs, foreign affairs, education, agriculture and health. The position of Vice President with powers is also being looked at. “We want the West to put pressure and they force government breakdown or power sharing. So, if he (Museveni) falls, the better for us and even if he shares power, the dockets under opposition shall be filled up with opposition supporters. We have many professionals but lack job placements,” the sources said. The source added, “Even if Bobi wins with 99 percent, we don’t see the EC declaring him. They will declare Museveni. Therefore, our focus is now on what happens thereafter. The events here will determine the fate of the opposition.”
NRM FIGHT BACK
Our highly placed sources revealed to this newspaper that President Museveni and his NRM group got wind of the opposition’s plan and even hatched plans to thwart any of their aggressors’ moves. The first response strategy by Museveni was to realign his lieutenants in the armed forces. This is seen in the recent security reshuffle that placed Kampala in the command of army generals that displayed excellent command duty in the AMISOM deployment in terrorist-infested Somalia. These will be backed by a 50,000-man strong force of NRM-loving youths whose sole duty will be to guard his votes. On top of this, over 20,000 SPCs have been trained in addition to tens of thousands of LDUs to help beef up security during and after elections. His supporters are also positioning themselves to safeguard their victory and it is feared even among the opposition that NRM and Museveni will garner majority MP candidates as the opposition concentrates on taking the presidency. “This will result into a hang parliament even if they are to win the presidency. There are many avenues to defeat them and I think it’s the reason they think a Unity government is the possible solution,” opined a source. In case this scenario happens, it will be the second of its kind in this great lakes region where the sitting government loses the presidency but controls parliament. It happened in DR Congo where former President Joseph Kabila’s party lost to opposition Felix Tshekeshedi but won parliament. Felix now has to dance to the tunes set by Kabila’s party which controls parliament. On the other hand, President Museveni has been pinning the opposition on a plot to destabilize Uganda but with the backing of foreign forces. He has consistently warned that his government won’t swallow any of these maneuvers but will crash them. This possibly explains why very many NUP supporters and campaign strategists including Eddie Mutwe and Nubian Li have been arrested and jailed. NUP spokesperson Joel Senyonyi revealed that in doing this, Museveni aims to weaken Bobi Wine and NUP by isolating him and possibly cutting out avenues of foreign funds. It should be noted that such fears of foreign infiltration in the electoral process is the reason behind the recent arrest of chapter Four boss and human rights lawyer, Nicholas opio.