Museveni, Besigye draw 2021 political daggers again

By Richard Kintu

Having been recently launched by the Independent Electoral Commission, the 2021 political roadmap is taking shape each passing day; with the major actors drawing lines of engagement as well as making statements of intent.

On February 15, 2019, the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) most senior organ, the Central Executive Committee (CEC) started their planning retreat at the iconic Chobe Safari Lodge in Nwoya district.

The all-important meeting kicked off the major events of the party’s 2021 electoral roadmap. The retreat, which has since passed critical resolutions including streamlining the party’s internal elections, will be followed by a national conference scheduled for June 2020 as well as convening of district conferences that will culminate in the filling of the party’s grassroots structures ahead of the 2021 general elections.

On the opposition side, four-time presidential elections loser, Col. Dr. Kizza Besigye, announced what he called a ‘people’s government’. The announcement comes three years since Besigye swore himself in as ‘people’s president’, and the latest move by the FDC godfather has drawn mixed reactions. While many people rubbished it off as Besigye’s latest ‘joke’ in his ‘political comedy’ script, other commentators interpreted it as the latest clear sign that Besigye wants to take a shot a fifth presidential candidature come 2021.

It however, remains to be seen whether Besigye simply wanted to overshadow NRM’s retreat with news of his own political maneuver or he is simply desperately trying to reclaim his place from People Power posterchild Robert Kyagulanyi alias Bobi Wine. It is worth noting that Bobi Wine has also already declared that he will contest for the presidency in 2021.

“We have been discussing this with my team and I must say we (I and my team) are seriously considering challenging President Museveni in the next presidential elections,” Bobi Wine recently declared in an interview on cable news network, CNN.

THE ANALYSIS

BESIGYE COMEDY?

It is still too early to judge Dr. Besigye’s intentions but many observers opine that his recently launched ‘People’s government’ cannot be taken so seriously either. Popular political commentator and senior presidential advisor Joseph Tamale Mirundi has time and again stated that despite President Museveni’s popularity, his government sometimes suffers signs of apathy from the general public. According to Tamale, this is not as a result of Museveni’s failing but rather it is a reflection of political inertia which makes people simply get tired of a long lasting political establishment without serious reasons.

The same can exactly be said of Dr. Besigye. It is worth noting that at the time of his emergence as a President Museveni contender in 2001, Besigye enjoyed goodwill followed by an excitement that brewed talk that he even won the 2006 presidential elections. However, since then his ratings have greatly waned that to date, many of his former supporters have gravitated towards new opposition figures especially Gen. Mugisha Muntu and more recently, Bobi Wine. This is however not a new trend for him.

It should be remembered that in 2006, Besigye scored 82% in Gulu, 75% in Kitgum and 77% in Pader but could only manage 20% , 15% and 14%  Pader in 2011. Many opine that the decline in fortunes was largely due to the candidature of northern Uganda sons of the soil in Norbert Mao and Olara Otunnu. This however, coincided with an improved performance for NRM’s President Museveni. The only explanation to this is that Besigye’s support in 2006 was hinged on specific grudges the voters had against the incumbent; particularly the LRA war.

“By 2011 the Kony war had been totally stopped by government and as such the people who had voted for Besigye saw renewed hope in the incumbent. This is part of the organizational advantage NRM has over its rivals like Besigye,” said an analyst who chose not to be named.

The Besigye dilemma

Ever since his failed presidential bid in 2016, Besigye has been cagey on whether he will seek a fifth presidential candidature. However, his latest step is a clear sign that he is preparing fertile ground for another shot at the presidency. This intention was further emboldened by DP President General Norbert Mao who said the opposition is in talks to choose a presidential candidate between Bobi Wine and Col. Besigye.

BESIGYE-BOBI WINE FIGHT

But as opposed to threatening President Museveni, Besigye’s likely emergence in the 2021 presidential race picture works against him and Bobi Wine as well as the entire opposition.

It is worth noting that already, a social media battle between these two frenemies followed by the establishment of the ‘people’s government’ only serves to weaken both of them even before NRM launches its final assault on either of them.

For a long time, Bobi Wine supporters have been taunting Besigye as a spent force and as such urging him to give way for the Kyagulanyi force.

This apparent spite has angered Besigye’s camp which has launched a mega fight back.

This general feeling was best highlighted in a taunt Besigye confidant Ingrid Turinawe cheekily directed towards FDC doubters upon the announcement of the ‘people’s government’. In her post, Ingrid oozed the aura of someone who was trying hard to prove a point that finally their detractors have been proved wrong.

“… While you thought and claimed we had gone silent, and you were busy hurling insults on Dr. Besigye, calling him names: a FAILURE , YAGWAAMU, BEBAMU etc, he was busy working day and night, traversing the country, he retreated to ground work of which results you have started to see.

He was busy preparing the ground for attack. You are not yet done, Prepare yourselves for more shocks! The champions of this struggle are now deeply rooted up to the last man. Apart from the National Assembly, you are yet to witness the inaugural events of Regional Peoples Assemblies, District People’s Assemblies, Subcounty Peoples Assemblies Village and parish Assemblies. Swearing in of cabinet ministers, regional Governors, District Commissioners, Subcounty Administrators, Parish officers and Village people’s chairmen are loading!

To those of you who have no idea of how nonviolent struggles operate, you are free to keep teething. If just a signal can make you tremble the way I see, what will you do when heavy duty actions start…,” Ingrid posted on her Facebook page.

And while addressing journalists on Monday at the party headquarters, FDC spokesperson, Ssemujju Nganda lashed at critics who were laughing at their people’s government; challenging them to also devise their methods of fighting Museveni.

Ssemujju noted that there has been increased attack on Besigye’s personality to the extent that some people seem to hate him more than Museveni. Ssemujju and Ingrid’s frustration was further echoed by FDC President Patrick Oboi Amuriat who recently said the party is under attack from social media detractors and negative pushes from the leadership of Parliament. Amuriat however vowed that the party was equally prepared to battle the detractors. It now remains to be seen whether the naming of the people’s government is a real ground work for Besigye’s presidential candidature or it is an attempt by FDC and Besigye loyalists to stick the middle finger in the face of their doubters and simply shut them up!

NRM OUTS DEADLY OFFENSIVE

Speaking to The Second Opinion, seasoned political historian and analyst, Mwambutsya Ndebesa, noted that NRM’s political strength and advantage over its rivals lies in its organizational abilities.

“NRM is better in terms of organizational factors and that has been its strength over the years. They have the money, state infrastructure, jobs and publicity,” Ndebesa said.

In a recent media interview, popular playwright and one-time presidential candidate, Charles James Senkubuge, put NRM’s organizational superiority in context. He revealed that in a casual chat with Gen. Salim Saleh in Sweden ahead of the President Museveni third term, the steady General called upon Senkubuge to work with NRM on accord that the ruling party was preparing for the fifth term — and as such was far ahead of the third term which was at hand. This shows you that NRM is light years ahead of its opponents in terms of foresight and organization. Going into the fifth term, NRM’s 2021 roadmap clearly shows that it has already touched base with the electorate and it is therefore on course to deliver the message that will deliver votes from the voters. Here is why:

BUGANDA QUESTION SOLVED

Recently, president Museveni visited Kabaka Ronald Muwenda Mutebi at his palace in Banda. This visit however, came just days after the charismatic Buganda Katikkiro, Charles Peter Mayiga had just heaped praise on Museveni’s regime, saying it is an insult to compare it with the past regimes of Obote and Amin. To add the icing on the cake, at the end of this meet the president ordered the fiancé ministry to pay Buganda its much needed Ebyaffe.

According to Kabaka’s press secretary, Sam Dick Kasolo, Museveni directed Finance to allocate Shs 23.5bn in FY 2019/20 budget and a similar amount in FY 2020/21 budget as compensation for Muteesa House (valued at Shs30bn) and King Fahad land (valued at Shs14.1 bn).

Later, Katikkiro Mayiga revealed that the president also ordered the Lands ministry to expedite the process of the transfer of all the certificate of titles of returned kingdom assets. Now, while this gesture may pass off as mere routine, its timing brings in a strategic twist. It is worth noting that in Robert Sentamu Kyagulanyi, the Baganda— whose importance in the country’s politics cannot be overlooked — have a formidable candidate they can call their own ever since Paul Kawanga Ssemogerere in 1996. This is according to presidential advisor, Tamale Mirundi. And by ironing out all Buganda’s grievances therefore, President Museveni has, in an act of expert foresight, heaped on the kingdom the compulsory burden of supporting him at all costs— at least on moral grounds. This thus deprives Kyagulanyi on an automatic blessing by Mengo. This means that if Mengo cannot embolden Mayiga’s support of Museveni come 2021, at least it will have no moral nerve to support its ‘own son’ in case he stands as he promised.

STRATEGIC CEC

Another display of NRM’s clear strategic organization manifested during the CEC retreat. It is worth noting that with NRM having registered commendable progress in terms of infrastructural development, its major challenge lies in putting money in the pockets of the 68% of Uganda’s population that is still living a subsistence life. This state off affairs is covertly mirrored in a recent report by PwC titled ‘Uganda Economic Outlook – 2019’. This showed that although the economy is on a rapid and sustained growth path, the number of new jobs arising from this growth has been disappointingly low.

The report noted that lack of growth in jobs has retarded poverty reduction in the country. For example, although the economy grew by an average of 4.5% year on year between FY15/16 and FY17/18, the number of people living in poverty increased in the same period from 19.7% in FY15/16 to 21.4% in FY17/182.

Against this background, it is worth noting that since the 1990’s the NRM government has stepped up efforts to eradicate household poverty — although still with unsatisfactory success.

To cover this gap, the NRM CEC retreated to Chobe Safari Lodge to devise the strategy and ideology to close in on household poverty. This retreat was being held under the theme: “Building on solid achievements, consolidating the unity of the NRM and the transformation of the wanainchi towards achieving vision 2040.”

The theme of the retreat is a clear indication that NRM knows what is best for the citizens of Uganda and is committed to bettering their wellbeing in all aspects,” said Faruk Kirunda, the spokesperson of the NRM National Chairman’s office based at Kyambogo.

And while opening the retreat, the NRM National Chairman Museveni, said that whereas the NRM is on track in provision of the development infrastructure including roads, electricity and service delivery, the presence of a big fraction of the population living a subsistence life is a big challenge to the party and the country. He thus advised the party’s top organ to finding a solution.  “These 68% population is our weakest point that we need to discuss, the rest is easy. Let us agree and talk the same language and act together,” he said.

And to address the problem, the CEC resolved to use Parishes as the focal points in the new strategy sought to transform Uganda’s enclave economy.

Both the Senior Presidential Advisor on the Economy Dr. Ezra Suruma and the Finance Minister Hon Matia Kasaijja presented guiding papers to the CEC members on how to tackle the estimated 68% households still surviving on Subsistance Farming.

According to Rogers Mulindwa, the NRM Senior Manager Information, Communications and Public Relations; this drive will be guided by the following strategy: The National Leadership shall guide the Population in the process of the transformation of the enclave economy, a number of elements shall be established at the Parish level that will include a Store, Technical Services, Irrigation Efforts and Fertiliser Distribution among others. The Parish Chief shall coordinate these activities. The Administration & Technical staff at this level shall possess a Diploma as the minimum academic qualification. Also, the Officers at the Sub County level shall be Degree holders, qualified in Crop and Animal Husbandry. Banking and Financial Service Centres shall be located at the District, and made available at the Parish while credit shall be focused initially on Coffee, Maize, Cocoa, Citrus and Vanilla among other crops.

Meanwhile, the equivalent of the Guilds (in England) of groups of producers around specific activity shall be the main target group or actors while the leadership shall study the Kiruhura Model and draw appropriate lessons for the rest of the country.

This strategy comes after the party passed resolves to foster harmony and cohesion within the party. This was by way of introducing open voting (by lining up) in all the party’s internal elections.

According to Mulindwa, this, on top of saving the party of heavy financial costs, has endless advantages which include: reducing costs of election management as NO ballot papers, ballot boxes, indelible ink… etc are required. It will minimise the number of independents due to its transparency, reduce bribery and commercialisation of elections, minimise infiltration by non-party members who carry sinister motives and also encourage participation.

Administratively, the strategy will reduce bureaucracy and tampering with electoral materials, cure postponement of elections, ballot stuffing; ease voter identification and reduce grounds for disputes or petitions.

Thus, the 2021 battle lines have been drawn.