OPINION: Will creation of new political formation send Museveni packing in 2026?

Outgoing Leader of the Opposition and now Parliamentary Commissioner Mathias Mpuuga Nsamba is undoubtedly a man on his way out having fallen out with the Kavule establishment. The fall out according to sources seems to have originated from the controversial service award that he allegedly picked from the parliamentary commission. Many have argued that the fall out happened much earlier even before the dirty money scandal emerged but nobody knows why Kyagulanyi and Mpuuga took different directions and refused to reconcile. 

What appeared to be a simple dispute based on the normal wear and tear among party members has seen the Mpuuga group threatening to secede. The harsh tone of Abed Bwanika who appears to a self appointed mouth piece of the new outfit is up in arms and often makes statements showing there is no turning back. We are told they have already identified a name, slogans, symbols and signatures for a new party registration with the Electoral Commission. There is also likelihood that the Mpuuga group could resurrect one of their many parties as an umbrella. 

It is now in black and white, Mpuuga and his get-away group is in the final stages of becoming autonomous but how easy can it get. I know for sure that making amendments or registering a political party in these end times is almost impossible. If any party registers or makes amendments in the documents, then be sure the NRM party has an invincible hand behind the move. The plan is to use such outfights to remain in power while juggling the so called opposition against one another. If all goes according to plan and if Mpuuga and group proceed to form a coalition, we may not have a formidable opposition any time soon. 

The hard talk so far shows battle line have been drawn, the country is likely to see a re-incarnation of a “Semei Kakungulu” emerge with a new face but with the same character of staging themselves as potential allies of the enemy for gain. The only difference is that unlike the first Semei Kakungulu who moved to the east, this one will focus his demobilization plan on Busiro and Buddu and some parts of Singo counties within Buganda to create a new political force that will temporarily leave the National Unity Platform (NUP) on clutches. 

I want my readers to know that whatever is going on is not accidental, it was a plan that failed at execution. I have no doubts in my mind that some people within people power were approached to destroy NUP from the start. By luck, Kyagulanyi managed to avoid placing them in sensitive decision making positions hence their bitterness and frustration. 

Otherwise, these mercenaries who were well positioned would have taken over the party and formed quorum to eject Kyagulanyi from the Presidency and perhaps sell the party as some FDC leaders did leaving some party leaders from Buganda, the north and Ankole in the cold. Now when you hear sentiments like I can’t judge Mpuuga because he is a fellow Muganda, a fellow Lawyer, I am conflicted, he a fellow catholic, he is my role model, my childhood friend, my fellow Buddu-ian, my former old boy, my neighbor, I was with him in Buganda caucus, my age mate among other excuses, then just know there is a sealed deal beneath. 

The departure of Mpuuga and group will undoubtedly affect NUP’s political gains made since 2017 when they first emerged as people power but will not break their back. Now that NUP has a party headquarters and a Leadership Training Institute, they will bounce back with a new set of leaders to steer the party to another level. All they need is Kyagulanyi’s magnetic energy but unfortunately, NUP will not be guaranteed of a block vote in Buganda. 

It is normal for party leaders to get misunderstandings but splitting has never been the best option if you have a common enemy. Right from the onset, Mpuuga and Bwanika made no effort to reconcile with the Kavule leadership. Before long, they started throwing insults at NUP often blaming them for not being pro Buganda’s katikiro Peter Mayiga. 

Those who have interacted with Besigye and his group will tell you that they became weaker when they broke away from NRM to create Reform Agenda. That explains why they again changed their name to Forum for Democratic Change (FDC)? How viable is it for FDC to again form another political party and expect to galvanize support before 2026? 

Now that Kiiza Besigye has lost his charisma and does not intend to contest in 2026, Lukwago is sick and Semujju Nganda has made it clear he will soon quit FDC; I don’t see any one capable of steering a breakaway of FDC. Truth be told, there is a problem we must look into as country in a more objective manner if multiparty democracy must thrive. Otherwise, a closer look at the formation’s steering committee shows they are all from Buganda. 

It is evident so far that the likes of Semujju Nganda, Munyagwa, Nsibambi, Erias Lukwago among others will not follow Nandala and Amurait’s FDC. Another group of UPC members are not willing to follow Akena and certainly the DP block members like Lulume Bayiga, Richard Lumu, Lubega Mukaku, Mike Mabikke among others with no clear political affiliation are uncompromising and not ready to move with NUP. It is almost certain that they will join Mpuuga to create another force to weaken NUP’s solid foundation in Buganda. 

That explains why the Mpuuga group is always blaming NUP and its foot soldiers for attacking Bulange Mengo and its leaders mainly the Katikiro from whom they have been demanding for the whereabouts of the Kabaka. Their argument is that out of the 57 MPs, 55 are from Buganda and that is why Kyagulanyi should have remained loyal to Mayiga to remain afloat. Otherwise, the agenda of the day code named is to teach Ugandans the culture of thanking their leaders while they are still alive for the good things done. 

What the Mpuuga group is not taking into consideration is that Katikiro Peter Mayiga is not as popular in Buganda as the former Katikiro not withstanding all the good things that he has done for Buganda since he was appointed by the Kabaka. That is what the Mpuuga group wants to exploit to navigate the turbulent political terrain come 2026. Infact NUP should consider all its members who refused to sign the Mpuuga censure motion as outgoing members. 

Thirdly, it is now clear that the Mpuuga group intends to use the Katikiro as a spring board to propel their agenda and that is why they have invited him to grace their function slated for this month at Masaka Diocesan Sports Arena Grounds in Kitovu. I am only anxious to see if the duo will take turns to insult Kyagulanyi and NUP in the presence of the clergy.  

Unlike the others who have written on this subject matter, I am not blind to tell that Mpuuga’s group will snatch a few people from the independents like Nsereko and will even take a few from the National Resistance Movement. Unfortunately, their plans are myopic in nature, for they are hinged on ethnicity and will not go beyond the borders of Buganda. 

It is a pity that we have learnt nothing from our historical mistakes to the extent that we still want to form political parties affiliated to religion and tribes. That partly explains why the Democratic Party has remained hospitalized with no hope of getting out of the intensive care unit. This is exactly where the Mao group found the DP party before they conveyed the same to the mortuary for postmortem. Now that Mpuuga’s group has confined their energies in Buganda, do they have any intention of taking the Presidency from Museveni or they are after splitting the opposition? With the current animosity, can they unite as a joint opposition? My answer is no. 

Kyagulanyi should also be prepared to lose some of his Members of Parliament to the NRM while some may opt to contest in the next election as independents. The behavior of some members during burial of Pascal Ssekasamba, a younger brother of former Democratic Party Secretary General Mathias Nsubuga, in Lwengo District was a precursor. Then came Kyagulanyi’s Masaka mammoth crowd that threw a spanner in the works. 

At that burial which Kyagulanyi attended in person as well as Mpuuga, Bwanika attacked the NUP president openly almost engaging in a fist fight. Bwanika told Kyagulanyi and his team to stop undermining Katikiro and Mpuuga. In a rejoinder Kyagulanyi apologized to the mourners for the uncouth behavior of his members including Bwanika and humbly distanced himself from the accusations telling the gatherers he had never asked his supporters to attack anyone. 

No wonder last night I had a dream that may require interpretation from the social media sorcerers. In my dream, I saw some high profile people travelling in a black engine canoe. I didn’t notice the person in charge of the engine but it was a lady who looked like Nabosa Ssebugwawo. At first I thought they were NUP members but a closer look showed they were without the usual red beret and were not even wearing red colours. They seemed scared of the strong turbulence on the water. 

Their canoe was partially empty and appeared like they were looking for more passengers. I was able to recognize Michael Kakembo, Abed Bwanika, Medard Ssegona, Jimmy Lwanga, Kazibwe Bashir, Allan Ssewanyana, Joyce Bagala, Florence Namayanja, Veronica Nanyondo, Katabaazi Francis, Christine Nandagire, Kigozi Ssempala, Kiyaga Hillary, Charles Tebandeke, Juliet Nakabuye, Robert Sekitoleko, Nalule Aisha, Fred Kayondo, Fortunate Nantongo, Mpalanyi Lukwago, Joan Namutawe, Nsegumire Kibedi and Nsubuga Paul. 

Others were Matovu Charles, Kanyike Ronald, Nakiyembe Sebuwufu, Namugga Gorreti, Brenda Nabukenya, Muhammad Ssegirinya, Kagabo Twaha, Muwanga Kivumbi and some other person who looked like Kiwanuka Abdallah among others. Then I saw vehicles ferrying people from the nearby Districts of Masaka, Lyantonde, Mpigi, Rakai, Sembabule, Lwengo, Kalungu, Bukomansimbi and Kampala. Their vehicles were securely protected by both the Uganda Police and the army. At first I thought it was an NRM function until I saw Hon. Dr Hilderman singing. 

I also heard a faint voice on the canoe receiving a call and referring to the person on the other side as Right Honourable; I think he was directing the speaker or her Deputy to the venue. Finally I saw Katonga Bridge had curved in before Peter Mayiga could cross to Masaka for the function yet at the function itself were many NRM dignitaries and others like “General” Bigirwa and Asuman Basalirwa and other Mps who last at the last election. 

Indeed I must have been dreaming because I know as much as the Katikiro does that he is a leader in a cultural institution and cannot be seen to take an active role in a political function to launch a political outfit disguised as a thanksgiving ceremony. At the centre of the organization is former FDC die hard lady cum power broker, traitor and now a state Minister in the central government. The ultimate beneficiary of that Mpuuga-Kyagulanyi-NUP split is Museveni. The new outfit could be a special purpose vehicle in which all the disgruntled will join. It may not even be a new party but an old one rebranded. 

By the time I woke up from my dream, I read on social media that there was an initiation ceremony in Masaka for people who had abandoned their faith to serve the very devil that they have been pretending to fight. They have been given all the resources required to implement their plans. They will be given some form of immunity from petitions, suits be is criminal or civil and are on course to distabilise the whims of democracy. End of dream.

Wadada Rogers is a commentator on political, legal and social issues. Wadroger@yahoo.ca